very simple

I know just about everyone has put their Oscar picks up, but now that I’ve gotten my Entertainment Weekly, I can’t rest until I post mine as well. Mind you, I’ve only seen about half of the movies, but I have opinions on all of them (well, almost all of them, I really have no feelings about either short film category) nonetheless.

Best Picture
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Lost in Translation
Master and Commander: The Far Side of The World
Mystic River
Seabiscuit

As I’ve mentioned before, I’m a total LOTR geek (movie, not book), so clearly it’s my sentimental favorite. That being said, I truly do believe that it was the best of the five. Just the sheer scope of the film dwarfs everything else on the list, including Master and Commander. Even people who aren’t as enamored of the film as I am have got to admire the balls it took to get it made – on the part of Peter Jackson, for even thinking that it could be done, and on the part of New Line, for being willing to bankrupt their entire studio if the first one wasn’t a hit. Sure, now we can’t imagine it not being a commercial success, but seven years ago?

Best Director
Fernando Meirelles, City of God
Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation
Peter Weir, Master and Commander
Clint Eastwood, Mystic River

I actually think that Jackson is going to win this one, for the reasons stated above, but there’s a part of me that sentimentally wants Sofia Coppola to win. Sure, she was pretty much the entire reason that Godfather III sucked, but I can forgive her for that. I mean, heck, I can’t act my way out of a paper bag, but if Francis Ford Coppola asked me to star in one of his movies, I’d be hard pressed to say no. And he’s not even my dad. That being said, she definitely falls squarely on the "directing" side of the directing vs. acting spectrum that is the Coppola film dynasty. I think my not-so-latent feminist tendencies cause me to root for her as the first American (and only third ever) woman to be nominated in this category.

Best Actor
Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog
Jude Law, Cold Mountain
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
Sean Penn, Mystic River

While I’ve had a schoolgirl crush on Johnny Depp since his days on 21 Jumpstreet, I think this is a two man race between Penn and Murray. I’m rooting for Murray. I appreciate that Penn is a "great" actor (and yes, the quotes are intentional), but Murray just entertains me more, and has been overlooked for a much longer period of time.

Best Actress
Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider
Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give
Samantha Morton, In America
Charlize Theron, Monster
Naomi Watts, 21 Grams

I actually haven’t seen any of these movies, so based on just the buzz that I’ve been hearing, I think this is Theron’s award to lose.

Best Supporting Actor
Alec Baldwin, The Cooler
Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams
Djimon Hounsou, In America
Tim Robbins, Mystic River
Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai

Again, this is a two-man race, between Robbins, who won the Golden Globe, and Watanabe, who was the best thing in an overrated Tom Cruise vehicle. I think it’ll be Robbins, but then again, what the hell do I know?

Best Supporting Actress
Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog
Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April
Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River
Holly Hunter, Thirteen
Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain

You know that thing they say about it being an honor just to be nominated? I think that’s pretty much the case of Aghdashloo, Clarkson and Hunter. Harden should be prohibited from winning just for participating in the offensive anti-feminist tripe that was Mona Lisa Smile. That leaves Zellweger, who blew me out of my seat as Ruby. I didn’t really get it a few years ago, but three nominations in three years, for such disparate and distinct characters as Bridget Jones, Roxy Hart, and Ruby Thewes means she needs to win this award.

Documentary Feature
Balseros
Capturing the Friedmans
The Fog of War
My Architect
The Weather Underground

Since there isn’t a holocaust picture in the bunch, I think it’s between The Fog of War and Capturing the Friedmans. My vote is for the latter.

Animated Feature
Brother Bear
Finding Nemo
The Triplets of Belleville

I wasn’t even going to list the other two films because Nemo is so clearly going to win, but I thought that wouldn’t be fair.

Original Song
"Into the West," music and lyric by Fran Walsh, Howard Shore, and Annie Lennox, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
"A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow," music and lyric by Michael McKean and Annette O’Toole, A Mighty Wind
"The Scarlett Tide," music and lyric by T Bone Burnett and Elvis Costello, Cold Mountain
"The Triplets of Belleville," much by Benoit Charest, lyric by Sylvain Chomet, The Triplets of Belleville
"You Will Be My Ain True Love," music and lyric by Sting, Cold Mountain

I’m becoming more and more convinced that the people who vote on these things are voting based on who they hope will actually perform during the ceremony. Not that that’s necessarily a bad thing. I can’t wait to see McKean and O’Toole (and if they dress in character, all the better). But I want Annie Lennox to win.

Screenplay (Original)
The Barbarian Invasions, Denys Arcand
Dirty Pretty Things, Steven Knight
Finding Nemo, Andrew Stanton, Bob Peterson, and David Reynolds; original story by Andrew Stanton
In America, Jim Sheridan, Naomi Sheridan, and Kirsten Sheridan
Lost in Translation, Sofia Coppola

While I wished that Coppola would win the director’s award above, I think that this is the one she’s actually going to win. Hands down.

Screenplay (Adaptation)
American Splendor, Robert Pulcini and Shari Springer Berman
City of God, Braulio Mantovani
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens, and Peter Jackson
Mystic River, Brian Helgeland
Seabiscuit, Gary Ross

Again, LOTR – the sheer work involved in getting the story down into anything resembling a reasonable movie length should be applauded with more than just a nomination. Seabiscuit was one of my favorite books last year, and the liberties that the screenplay took with the story (and the truth!!) kind of pissed me off – the true story was just as (if not more) moving, and the changes just seemed to be attempts to make the story that much more bathed in pathos (i.e., losing a 15 year old son is bad enough, but apparently the filmmakers thought the audience just wouldn’t appreciate the tragedy unless he was significantly younger, and Red’s wife was an integral part of his story and his recovery, but to see Ross’s take on it, the guy had no one.) Helgeland should never be forgiven for A Knight’s Tale.

There are a bunch of other nominations, but if I’ve got no interest in ranking them, I’m absolutely sure you have no interest in reading my take on them.